Political Violence and Economic Activity in Bangladesh: A Robust Empirical Investigation
Ahmed Yousuf  1, *@  , Christophe Muller  1, *@  
1 : Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques  (AMSE)
École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, Aix Marseille Université, Ecole Centrale de Marseille, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales : UMR7316, Aix Marseille Université : UMR7316, Ecole Centrale de Marseille : UMR7316, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR7316
5-9 Boulevard BourdetCS 5049813205 Marseille Cedex 1 -  France
* : Corresponding author

Using daily and monthly level night light products from National Aeronautics and Space Ad-ministration (NASA) Black Marble suite (NASA and Administration (2199)) and extrapolating hartal related violence data with keyword search from geocoded Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) database, we investigate the impact of such events on economic activity in Bangladesh. We focus our investigation firstly at daily level and secondly at monthly level. At daily level, we utilize Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) estima-tion to factor in the deeply autoregressive nature of daily night lights, to identify immediate (within-day) effects from hartals, individually for key sub-districts. At the monthly level, to factor in the emergent consequent spatial dependence we analyze country wide dynamics using a Split-Panel Jackknife bias corrected Maximum Likelihood estimations to see overall effects from lagged hartal event counts. At daily level, over 2012-21, in the capital Dhaka, we find that daily hartals have an immediate statistically significant impact of -0.9 percent on daily night lights. However this effect does not hold across all subdistricts, and only does so for a select number of subdistricts. At the monthly level, we find evidence of statistically significant country wide effects of 1.6 percent.


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