This paper tries to explain why the fertility rate is declining from 2014 to 2019 in Russia. Duration models are used for modelling: hazard and survival functions are studied for giving birth to a second child. The empirical study is carried out on the micro data of the RLMS-HSE from 2000 to 2019, the regional data from Rosstat, and the data on the region's maternity capital programs amount by years from the open sources. We find that the indexation of the federal Maternity Capital program leads to a 2.1% increase in the hazard of a second birth however there was no indexation from 2015 till 2019. We also show that regional Maternity Capital programs affect the probability of a second birth, and the estimated value is 2 times bigger than for federal program, but regional government does not treat the programs with attention. The last important factor negatively affecting fertility is the economic recession of 2014. Results are robust to different metrics (proportional hazard and accelerated failure time), functional forms (parametric and non-parametric), and subsamples (married women and working women).